Obvious Warnings aren't new

We tend to think that obvious warnings (like this one) are a product of our modern litigious society, and that those lawsuits can be traced all the way back to Judge Wapner's People's Court with Doug Llewelyn's admission of "Don't take the law into your own hands; you take them to court."

But silly warning have been around for much longer, as this sign (ostensibly for children) from a 1910 Seattle Cable Car indicates:

Technology to Change the World

We have more than enough energy to satisfy our greatest needs and desires.  It's out there in the environment -- in the sun on our faces, the wind on our back, the vibration of the freeway, the rattling of trains, the surf eroding the shore, the atoms we split, the garbage we rot, and the coal we burn.  The only problem is that it's not where we want it, when we want it.  Our goal for the 21st century should be to fix that problem

Mobile technology, computing technology, communications technology and related items have really changed the world over the last 20 years.  What's the next step?

Batteries.

If we can develop dramatically more efficient, less expensive, and (ideally) more eco-friendly battery technology, we can change the world again in the next 20 years.

Improved battery technology can drive electricity costs down. Imagine being able to charge your home's batteries at night when powerplants are underutiltized.  Power can be cheaper in the off hours, and we can eliminate a lot of the Brown-Out and rolling Black-Out problems parts of the country face on hot summer days.

Electric vehicles, like the Nissan Leaf and Tesla family of cars are giving us a viable alternative to gasoline, but they still are limited in range to about 100 miles for the Leaf and under 300 miles for the Tesla. Imagine battery technology that's good for 1000 miles.

Combine those vehicles with off hours charging and household batteries and we get world changing benefits.  Even charging cars with electricity from coal powerplants produces less greenhouse gas  than driving on gasoline.

These two battery solution gives us even more benefits, though.  Storing power locally gives us better disaster preparedness.  When powerlines go down due to wind, rain, or hurricane, household batteries can keep the lights bright and the refrigerator cold.

Alternative energy solutions at the local level, whether those solutions are roof top solar panels or home sized windmills become much more viable with the right battery technology.

Large scale alternative energy solutions, again, whether they are hydro-electric, geothermal, solar, wind, or wave action are all more viable when we can efficiently store they energy.

And back down to the small scale, as we migrate more and more to cloud computing, keeping those laptops and smart phones charged is critical.

I'm not sure if it's just a question of more efficiently scaling our current technology -- of making refinements to what we already have -- or if we need massive conceptual shift in areas of chemical and electrical engineering that I know nothing about.

The company that can master battery technology -- the country that can master battery technology -- will own the economy of the future.

Battery technology isn't sexy.  It's not exciting.  It rarely makes headlines.  But it should.  

Our nation's infrastructure and ecnomy depend on it and demand advances in battery technology.

The question is, how do we capitalize on it?

Flying into Seattle

One of the best things about living in Seattle is flying home. 

If the weather and ATC are cooperating, you get some beautiful views of the city.  I fly into cities all over the country and none of them compare to the view you get when landing at SeaTac (SEA) from the north. 
I took this pictures from a seat over the wing on 2010-04-29, on an Alaska Airlines flight from Las Vegas.


(Not much skyline in that one, but the cloud looks like someone lying down on their back)

Kid directing ground traffic at JFK

NEW YORK — As planes waited to take off from Kennedy Airport, the jargon-packed radio chatter between controllers and pilots was interrupted by a boy's voice: "JetBlue 171, cleared for takeoff."
An air traffic controller who brought his son to work let the youngster read a few routine messages to pilots — and brought in another child the next day — in an incident that amused pilots but not the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).
Authorities suspended the controller and a supervisor Wednesday after a recording of the radio calls was posted on the Internet, then reported by a Boston television station.

...More

By this point you may have heard this story.  A controller brought his kid to work and let him read some radio calls to planes at JFK.  The recording got out on the 'net; the controller and his supervisor are suspended.  You can listen to the actual audio here.

And there is much outrage and gnashing of teeth over thousands of people who were nearly killed as a result. The problem with that view is that there wasn't any actual damage.

It's important to realize a few things here.

1. The is grounds control at JFK.  Planes are slowing moving about the tarmac and are not in the air.
2. It's clear that kid was being told EXACTLY what to say and he did it clearly.
3. This was actually safer than a normal JFK afternoon.  The fresh voice on the radio and break in routine probably amused many of the pilots.  At the very least, it got them to pay more attention, which is a good thing.

Indefinite suspension is a little much for this incident.  The controller shouldn't have done it, though his actions seem to have caused no danger. Give him a verbal reprimand and be done with it. Let's hope this incident doesn't turn the kid off to airtravel careers in the future.

Bike stolen

This is the sight that greeted me when I pulled into the parking garage this afternoon.  It's the remnants of my bike lock.  Apparently, someone stole the bike between 4:00 PM and 5:15 PM Monday afternoon.

It's frustrating because, while it is a secure garage, it's not too difficult to slip in and out as cars come and go.

Fortunately, it wasn't a terribly expensive bike.  I paid about $250 for it new on 2006-09-03.  My intent was to start out cheap because I hadn't owned a bike in several years and haven't ridden regularly since the Reagan administration. I thought I wanted to ride, but wasn't sure if I would get off my tail and just do it.

I haven't ridden it since I bought it.  I always planned to, but I haven't really been in the physical condition required to ride up the hills in my neighborhood, and it has been too many year for me to ride comfortably in traffic without a bit more practice.  To ride I would have had to drive it to a bike trail or other suitable area, unload it from the car, put the wheel back on, ride around, load it back in the car, and drive home.

I never quite got around to doing that.  Instead, it took up space in my apartment, and then later chained to the fence in my building's garage.

This summer, there was probably a 25% chance I would actually get out an ride.  I expected I'd feel like I was in a little better shape, thanks to the Wii Fit, but it's just as likely the hassle would have discouraged me.

Now I have to think about this project again.  Do I want to try actually riding in meatspace again, or should I just stick to the digital world?  Should I try another bike, or will it mainly end up as furniture?

In the meantime, maybe the thief will ride out into traffic illegally and get run over.  I just hope that in the process he doesn't damage the car that hits him.  Because that would be sad.

Light Rail and SeaTac

Finally.  We now have rail to the airport in Seattle.

Early holiday arrival: light rail to airport

With duffel bags, wheeled luggage and children in tow, a steady stream of travelers tried Sound Transit's new SeaTac/Airport Station on its opening day Saturday.

The trains, coming about 10 minutes apart, typically carried some 75 riders each into the towering station with the spine-like truss roof, located between the airport parking garage and Highway 99.

It opened two weeks early, just in time for the airport's busy Christmas travel period.

...More

The system is far from finished and should have been built years ago.  but bickering over infrastructure has delayed it since the 1960s.

The question remains of how useful the system will be. 

The biggest airport users will likely be airport/airline employees.  Travellers will use it, too, but I'm curious about the volume.

It costs $2.50 to ride to the airport.  If I were to drive, that would mean 15 miles of travel.  Plus I pay $12-14 a day fro parking.  If I use the airport garage that price jumps to about $26/day.  If I take a cab, it's about $45 each way.

So it's definitely cheaper to take the train.  The problem?  Luggage.

The nearest station is 8-12 blocks from my building.  And that's down hill.  Leaving in the morning with my computers and suitcase wouldn't be too much hassle, but I'm not sure I want to deal with hauling all my stuff back 8-10 blocks, uphill, at night, after a day of activity and flying. It just sounds tremendously unpleasant. 

For short trips, maybe it makes sense to use as a traveler.  For longer ones, I'm a bit skeptical.

Now if they actually build the streetcar in my neighborhood, we may be on to something.  Here's to hoping for the Boren route.

Delays as the norm

On Thursday, the failure of a single piece of hardware in Salt Lake City made a wreck of the air travel system. It impacted hundred of flights and resulted in cancellations and delays across the country as we head into one of the busiest travel weeks of the year.

From the Seattle PI:

ATLANTA -- Air travelers nationwide scrambled to revise their plans Thursday after an FAA computer glitch caused widespread cancellations and delays for the second time in 15 months. The Federal Aviation Administration said the problem, which lasted about four hours, was fixed around 9 a.m., but it was unclear how long flights would be affected.

My favorite part is that so many airports are so messed up that massive delays and cancellations look like business as usual.

Despite the problems, the public areas of Atlanta's airport seemed no busier than usual.
 ...
In the public areas of Newark International Airport, where delays are routine, Thursday seemed like a normal day, though several people paced around the terminal trying to rearrange their plans.

...More

The actions of the airports would be worthy of kudos if the situation was more like, "they delays meant a lot more people were in the airport waiting for flights, but the logistics were manageable."  The issue is that there was no evident difference between this day and any other.  The major mess was just business as usual.

Impaired Vision on the Road

Dust storms recently shut down I90 in Eastern Washington, near Moses Lake.  It looks like the road is now open.

MOSES LAKE, Wash. -- Strong winds that had whipped up dust and caused poor visibility in Eastern Washington have subsided, allowing authorities to reopen Interstate 90 between Moses Lake and Ritzville.
...More

Periodically, we hear about these conditions and the resulting 50+ car pile ups.  They've been known to happen on I-84 in northern Oregon, and in central California.  You get too much dust with too much wind, or you get too much fog, combined with people traveling too fast, following too closely, or just rounding a corner and suddenly encountering blinding conditions on the road and its a recipe for mayhem and insurance claims.

In my travels I've enoucountered some challenging conditions, but the worst was in the '93 or '94.  I was at the end of a long drive from New York to Helena, MT.  That last day I got my first taste of truly blinding rain near Gillette, WY.  The rain came down so hard, intense, and fast, that I could see only a few feet in front of the car. All I could do was slow to a crawl while the monster sized drops pounded the roof of my Subaru GL and look for a place to pull over.

The problem is you can't just stop, because you will get hit from behind.  And you can't really go on because of the danger.  So all I could do was crawl forward, try to follow the tail lights on the semi's in front of me, hope they don't screw up, and sneak down an exit to wait.  Fifteen minutes later, it was all clear, and I continued on my way.

I encountered the same type of rain in the mountains east of Bozeman, MT later that day, and again, followed a slow moving semi, watched the 10' of roadway lane marking, and eventually ended up in a rest stop (I think) until the rain again let up.

The amazing thing to me is that people kept going.  This wasn't the type of rain you can deal with by turning on the wipers; the blindness wasn't caused by an opaque windshield -- it was an opaque atmosphere in front over every vehicle. 

And yet people zipped on by. 

I know it makes me sound old to complain about the maniacs flooring it on the freeway, but this was genuinely scary blinding rain.  And that was back when I was younger and making decisions I might not make today.  And I still had the sense to get off the road.

I guess the points I take aware are:

1. Dust of the Interstate sucks.
2. Fog on the Interstate sucks.
3. Waterfalls of rain blocking everyone's view on the Interstate suck.
4. If you can't see more than 10', what they hell are you doing driving 30-60 mph?
5. Rain is loud.
   

Victoria Part 02: Ferry Rides

Victoria is only 80 miles from Seattle, but for that short distance, it can be a pain to get to. Damn water.

Now that the GF has her passport, we headed up there a few days ago. There are several choices for the journey.

You can take the Victoria Clipper from downtown Seattle if you don't want to bring a car and want to spend almost $300 (for two people).

You can drive 2.5-3 hours to Vancouver, BC and catch one of a number of different ferry options.

You can take a ferry out to the Olympic Peninsula and then catch another ferry from Port Townsend to Victoria.

You can fly.

Or you can do what we did. I think we found the best combination of convenience, cost, and time.



We left Seattle at 4:30 AM and drove about an hour to Anacortes. We left plenty of time in case something went wrong, but nothing did. We got to the ferry terminal at about 5:45 AM and waited in line for the 8:15 AM sailing. The ferry ride took just over 2 hours and let us off in Sydney, BC, about 20 minutes from our hotel in downtown Victoria.



The great thing about the ferry ride, besides being beautiful is that once we were on the boat I didn't have to do anything, like make sure my car stayed in it's lane. I could just relax and take some pictures. And it's a heck of a lot more comfortable than flying anywhere in coach.



The roundtrip cost for the ferry was about $130 for two people plus the car. And Canadian customs/immigration was a breeze.

You can see more pictures from the ferry trip here.

Light Rail and Soccer

On Saturday, Light Rail finally started rolling in Seattle. It's not a perfect system, but it could grow into a great transit solution, if Seattle will just stop talking to itself and build some damn infrastructure.

I thought about jumping on the train for the rides today, but I didn't feel like dealing with the crowds. And I was tired. So decades from now, I'll be able to tell folks I passed on a major historical event for the city because I preferred to have a nap.

You can read more about the opening in the article.

What really stuck me about the article was this line:

The sold-out Sounders FC soccer game, which drew more than 65,000 fans to Qwest Field, caused surges at nearby stations. But after the game, Sound Transit rolled up an extra two-car train at Stadium Station.

What? 65,000 people are showing up for a Soccer game in Seattle? Isn't that, like, 2/3 of entire professional Soccer fan base in the US? And apparently, the Sounders are drawing an average of 29,983 people to each home game.

The Mariners only draw 28,761.

Those number are shocking. I don't know if I should be more happy for the Sounders or more embarrassed for the Mariners.

Stimulus spending in Seattle

The Capitol Hill Seattle Blog reported on Tuesday that King County Metro Transit is using $46 million in federal stimulus money to purchase new hybrid electric busse to replacing aging diesel busses.

It sounds like sensible purchase for Metro. Metro will spend less on fuel and maintainence, and these new busses will be replacing busses that are already at the end of their service life.

Previously, I advocated stimulus spending on infrastructure, and mass transit is a great place to spend it. We have a unique opportunity to improve our infrastructure at a discount while we keep people working.

After the stimulus spending, people will have had more work and cities will have improved infrasrtucture that will last for years to come. These are all good things.

But these busses will not be built in King County. They are made by Daimler Chrysler, so I imagine they are being built somewhere in the US. At least I hope they are.

I would rather Metro spend stimulus money not on replacement busses, but on other infrastructure to keep people working in King County. That may inlcude construction work to speed up Sound Transit's Light Rail, enhanced Park and Ride facilities, improved HOV access for transit, or other items.

Buying additional busses to expand service on exisiting routes would also be a good use of stimulus money.

It looks like the stimulus money is going to meploy people in the US. And ultimately that does benefit us all. I would just prefer the King County Metro stimulus money be spent to employ folks in King County.

Danger at the airport

At SEA Thursday night, airport danger did not come from difficulty with a plane, unsavory characters, or even an overzealous TSA person. The runways and hallways were clear. The driveways -- not so much.

I hauled my luggage off the escalator and headed to the crosswalk so I could get the shuttle to my parkling lot (MasterPark, Lot B is great). And then a Fairfield Inn shuttle starts backing up quickly.

There are two lanes in the shuttle pick up area. The curb lane is where the drivers pick up passengers. The left lane is for passing shuttles that are picking up passengers. They both go the same direction.

For some bizarre reason, the shuttle driver from the Fairfield Inn decides he is going to back up.

Not only is he backing up, he is backing up diagonally, from the curb lane into the left lane.

Not only is he backing up from the curb lane into the left lane, he is doing it quickly.

Not only is he doing it quickly, he is also ignoring the other shuttle driver -- who is already in the left lane, in danger of being rammed and is pounding his horn.

Not only is he ignoring the pounding horn, he is also expecting the wall that separates me from the road to get the hell out of his way.

The wall decides to stay put.

*crunch*

The van hits the wall, bends the wall frame, and punches out a metal panel 15' from where I was walking.

The driver gets out and is stunned that dozens of people are looking at him like he's a moron.

The wall took some damage; the van very little.

And I wonder how many of that Fairfield Inn's guest decided to arrive by taxi that night.

Seattle and Paying to ride the bus

Seattle is finally introducing its version of NYC's highly convenient Metrocard.

From the SeattlePI.com:

It's a transit pass and pay-per-ride card that can be used throughout King, Kitsap, Snohomish and Pierce counties. It's three years later and $5 million more expensive than expected.

But ORCA -- One Regional Card for All -- is here, starting Monday.

...

Riders can load the cards with monthly passes and $5 to $300 of credit to pay for transit rides. They will tap them against (or just hold them in front of) readers on buses and in rail stations, can use them for transfers within two hours of paying for a ride, and can use them for multiple modes and zones on one trip, with each tap of the card charging the incremental fare difference.

...More

I particularly like that last paragraph. It answers most of the questions I had about the pass.

I need to get one of these ORCA cards

I rarely ride the bus. I work from home so I don't have a regular commute, and my normal range of activity keeps me within walking distance of my building. There are times, though, when the bus (and this summer light rail) could be more convenient.

But paying cash for the bus just seems complicated. The fares change depending on the time of day. Some parts of the area are free; others are not. Sometimes you pay getting on the bus; other times getting off it.

Yes, I know these are silly concerns. Thousands of people ride the Seattle area transit system every day with no problems. But I don't have room in my brain for those rarely used details. It's too full of TV theme songs.

I can envisions putting $20 or $30 on this card, though, and just keeping it in my wallet. If I want to ride the bus, I can just swipe or wave my non-expiring card. No dealing with exact change or passes that expire.

So in addition to making the transit system easier for most users, Metro will also be picking up at least one new rider.

Electric Car Business Model

Recently Wired profiled Shai Agassi and his company, Better Place.

The company is pushing electic cars and is working on a pilot rpogram in Israel and Denmark.  What makes things different is that he approaches is like the cell phone model. The plan is not to make money selling cars; it's to make money selling subscriptions to battery charging stations and battery swap facilities.

Speaking without notes, Agassi roams the stage, preaching the inevitability of his plan. He has a way of describing things that is never zero-sum; everybody wins in his version of the future, even when he's selling massive disruption.

"For the car companies, we made it simple," he says. "We separated the ownership of the car and the ownership of the battery. See, car companies don't know how to assess the life of the battery. So they go through these complicated programs of testing them for a long period of time. And we told the car company, you know what? Just like you don't sell a car with a card that says 'Here is oil for the life of the car,' you don't sell cars with the batteries for the life of the car, because the battery is crude oil." He explains that his plan alone, once scaled up, could produce a 20 percent drop in the world's CO₂emissions. And he wasn't stopping there. "If we also buy clean generation, we reduce the price of clean electrons so that at the end of 10 years, clean electrons are cheaper than coal-based electrons, and nobody builds another coal plant at that point. That's another 40 percent of CO₂ emissions; that's the treaty Tony Blair is now working to get for the world by 2050. I'm telling you, we can get there a decade after we finish the car side. We can get there in 2030—60 percent reduction in our CO₂ emissions."

It's a great story.  I don't know if it will work, but it is refreshing to see new, potentially plausible ideas and business models in this space.

You can read the whole article here.

Attack on the S.L.U.T

Last week, the new South Lake Union Trolley Streetcar began serving commuters, shoppers, and tourists along it $52 million, 1.3 mile route.

It was paid for by both business along the route and with tax money. It may not be terribly useful, yet, but it's a start. And Seattle may expand the line someday.

But it has its foes. The anti-tax people think it's a waste of money. The anti-Microsoft/Vulcan people oppose it because it helps Paul Allen. The environmentalists and transit activists oppose it because they want more buses instead. Drivers oppose it because it takes some parking spots and they fear it may make traffic worse. Bicyclists oppose it because someone riding along the track might slip, get their wheel stuck, and fall.

Which brings us to the events of last Thursday.

From the Seattle PI:

Police investigate streetcar sabotage attempt

King County sheriff's deputies were investigating a prank in which a golf-ball sized metal bearing was placed on the track of the city's new South Lake Union streetcar, possibly in an attempt to damage it during its inaugural run.

...More

This is just pathetic. I don't know what's worst.

• The best Seattle's radicals/protesters/terrorists (choose whichever one you want) could come up with was to lay a ball bearing on the track.
• The viscous attack could actually have worked.
• The Sheriff's Department now has to spend time and money investigating this assault.

This is why we can't have nice things, like infrastructure.

Can we now look forward to a nasty spit ball fight once light rail starts running?

A380 too small

I don't know if this is a bad idea, a good idea, or a really cool idea.

But I'm leaning toward insane.

Airbus has always planned for a stretched version that could carry about 100 more passengers -- perhaps as many as 1,000 in a one-class configuration.

...More

Airport Codes

Generally, when I abbreviate a city name, I just use the airport code. When I write someone that I'm going to Chicago or Miami, I write it out as ORD or MIA. It's habbit other frequent flyers have as well.

While SEA (Seattle) and BOS (Boston) may seem to be obvious codes, have you ever wondered where there others came from?

This article goes into excruciating detail about how airports get their codes. It's fascinating reading.

When the Wright brothers first took to the air in 1903, there was no need for coding airports since an airport was literally any convenient field with a strong wind. However, the National Weather Service did tabulate data from cities around the country using a two-letter identification system. Early airlines simply copied this system, but as airline service exploded in the 1930's, towns without weather station codes needed identification. Some bureaucrat had a brainstorm and the three-letter system was born, giving a seemingly endless 17,576 different combinations. To ease the transition, existing airports placed an X after the weather station code. The Los Angeles tag became LAX, Portland became PDX, Phoenix became PHX and so on. Incidentally at the historic sand dune in Kitty Hawk where the first flight occurred the U.S. National Parks Service maintains a tiny airstrip called FFA—First Flight Airport.

...More

Think before you speak

Mitsubishi just announced a new line of commuter jets. The company president expects them to be successful:

"We feel strongly that we will be able to create an aircraft that will have an impact," he told reporters.

I thought the goal was to ensure your aircraft don't have any impacts.

Full article

Special Livery

Retro liveries (paint jobs) are one of the ones airlines celebrate milestones and anniversaries.

Today I was lucky enough to see the new paint on the Astrojet (American Airlines 737-800, plane number N951AA) as it pulled into the gate at SNA. She's a great looking bird.

MSFT Expanding in Seattle

One reason I like to get first class upgrades when I fly is that I work up there. I usually can't type on my notebook when I'm in coach. There's simply no room. Then I am left to reading a book or watching a movie.

That seems like a good deal because I get some extra leisure time on the plane in coach. But the problem is, I still need to do the work, and may have to stay up late to get everything done once I reach my destination.

In other words, if I can work on the plane for 3 hours, I can go to bed 3 hours earlier that night.

It seems Microsoft understands this concept. They made two major announcements in Seattle today. They are expanding in the city of Seattle (as opposed to Redmond), and they are introducing their own bus service for employees.

I find this interesting. Microsoft is expanding in the downtown Seattle area. They will have 1400 jobs to the area over the next few months.

In addition to the new jobs, they are adding space to accommodate Redmond workers who find themselves on this side of the lake.

One goal is to better accommodate Microsoft employees who live in Seattle, Liddell said. In addition to the traditional office space, the company is creating 150 "touch down" spaces in the Westlake/Terry building -- small spots where employees who work in Redmond can sit down, plug in a laptop and work in Seattle for a couple of hours when they have a meeting in the city or want to avoid rush hour.

"The spaces are temporary -- they won't be second offices," Liddell explained. "But they will help relieve some of the pressures and unnecessary back-and-forths currently taking place."

Since much work these days requires simply a notebook computer and an internet connection, workers can have more flexibility.

The main campus is several miles east of Seattle, but it can take anywhere from 25 to 105 minutes to get there depending on traffic. And with Seattle's inability to make any decisions on infrastructure, I don't see that changing.

And MSFT doesn't want employees squandering hours sitting in a stopped car on the SR520 floating bridge. So they are also starting their own bus service.

The 14-bus Microsoft "Connector" system, to debut later this month, was announced as the company unveiled plans to open new offices in Seattle's South Lake Union and Pioneer Square neighborhoods.

At launch, the bus system will handle no more than 1,000 employees a day. That's only a slice of Microsoft's more than 35,000 employees in the region.

But the fact that Microsoft would find it necessary to take such a step added new fuel to the debate over comprehensive regional transportation reform.
...

The pilot program will include 14 buses, including seven large coaches with bike storage, and electrical outlets at each seat, in addition to Wi-Fi. Seven midsize coaches will be used for neighborhood pickups. There will be multiple runs in the morning and afternoon, Smith said.

...
Besides reducing traffic congestion and minimizing air pollution, keeping employees out of bumper-to-bumper traffic also keeps them happy.

And with those amenities on the bus, it looks like transit time can more effectively be used as work time. And maybe someone can get to bed an hour or two earlier

For more information about the downtown expansion, click here.

For more information about the new bus service, click here.